Facebook woes don’t start or end there. It ran at a loss until 2 years ago. Minus multiple and inactive Facebook accounts and the marketing figure of 800 million users will be far less. It’s reached saturation level in developed countries such as Canada and the USA. Saturation will lead to some moving on from the “fad” to another. Deactivated accounts are increasing. More and more companies have banned Facebook in the workplace (which is where most internet traffic is generated). HCL Technologies announced that 50% of British employers had done so. Zynga, by far the largest developer of Facebook games (Cityville, Mafia Wars etc.), had it’s share price drop after it’s IPO. Look what happened to Friendster and My Space. So why not Facebook too?
This doesn’t mean that Facebook should be dismissed. It’s still an internet giant…but it has to stop climbing the fiber optic equivalent of Jack’s beanstalk. So far, it’s overcome losses by gaining new subscribers from developing countries such as Mexico and India. The ultimate prize, China, which could deliver billions of dollars, has been impeded by temporary censorship outages. Add that QQ, the most popular instant messaging app in China, is a giant itself (812 million active user accounts in 2011), and Facebook has serious obstacles.
Hypocritically, i’d trade places with Zuckerberg right now. I’ve no doubt that there will be several new billionaires when Facebook lists. But i wouldn’t share the expected lie of one billion users later this year.
I’m no technophobe. I believe that every business should utilize every tool at their disposal, including FB, but with acknowledgement of the limitations of social media – they are not a quick fix that substitutes hard work. I predict a return to the building of personal databases and relevant newsletters for more serious interest groups. For the rest, the majority, there will be less language and more texting.
I’m passionate for the internet but, socially, no longer know what to do with a thousand “friends”. I don’t care to respond to arguments that have no substance except attention seeking. I don’t care if my cousin’s baby pooped into her FB status. I’ve overcome the fantasy that the 18-24 year old (biggest FB crowd) breasts-in-a-bikini is going to message me for a pool party with all her friends (and why should i if her friends don’t even bother to comment on her photos anymore). I don’t need an invitation to a shopping sale. I can’t bear another change to my home page or Group. I can’t bear another change to my home page or Group. I can’t bear another change to my home page or Group…
SFW (that for any texters reading this article by mistake)!
What i need is real dialogue but i doubt that Facebook will be sending me a letter via post.