Firstly, credit must go where it’s deserved. Donovan Pofadder was the DA’s big surprise. They worked hard to win the new ward but i don’t believe that they could’ve expected it. Pofadder spectacularly clinched the 6th win for his party.
With the DA at 6, ANC 3, COPE 1, an independent 1, it seemed as if the DA would take at least 5 of the 10 PR seats that were waiting to be allocated, thus giving them total control.
But initial DA expectations got dashed as the election results failed to appear. Although home to a small population, Knysna was strangely in Western Cape limbo along with Stellenbosch and the Cape Town.
Last night, ECNA published a result so odd that i never published it. Additionally, the IEC and News24 had yet to concur.
This morning, the ECNA result proved to be almost true. The ACDP (898 votes) and the KUC (1038 votes) had each won PR seats whereas COPE, with 2832 votes, hadn’t. Additionally, the DA failed to get the 5th PR seat it need for control.This morning, the ECNA result proved to be almost true. The ACDP (898 votes) and the KUC (1038 votes) had each won PR seats (whereas COPE, with 2832 votes, and the DA, hadn’t).
The calculation for PR seats is an awkward one but the biggest question is how could COPE, with more votes than the ACDP and KUC together, not add a PR seat to their Ward win? One theory is that COPE never expected to do so well and thus never listed a second PR candidate with the IEC. If so, that would be a tragic mistake.
Right now, COPE will be busy trying to make a deal with the DA so that the Council is unhung. However, their leader, Elrick van Aswegen, has to be careful not to ask for too much. If he tries for mayorship, the DA will likely rebel and look to the KUC or Velile Waxa, an independent who amazingly defeated the ANC in Ward 4.
Those latter options would be awkward too. They both form rebellions against the ANC but their followers may not be ready to get in bed with the DA.
The final option is the ACDP. They may seem a better fit but we cannot ignore the scandal preceding the elections. ACDP candidate Schalk van der Merwe took a tough, unjustifiable position against the DA. He published an anonymous letter that seemed to defame many whilst promoting himself. The ACDP may not have reigned him in but their leader, Shakespeare Arends, seems to be a pushover – maybe the DA would find that appealing in a partner.
In the bigger picture of the Western Cape, the DA may need COPE in other municipalities. It’s possible that our local politics gets discarded by a blanket deal. Hey, since when was democracy actually democracy?
The excitement of the elections continues…