This is my 2019 South African election prediction.
Racial identity and scandal makes the Western Cape the trickiest province in South Africa. Whereas people have never been this mad with the DA, ensuring a few seat changes, I think many will fall back in line, mostly white cattle to the slaughter. The DA will drop but not enough for my liking (if you’ve downloaded my book for free, you’ll understand why – https://wp.me/p9Of25-1mn).
I’m confident VF+, ACDP and EFF will do better but the allocation of seats at the bottom is a tricky mathematical business.
I’m hoping the pollsters have underestimated Public resentment for the DA, and that the Land Party and Cape Party squeeze a seat. The sentiment on social media gives them a chance. COPE may compete with them but only one or two of the smaller parties can be a winner.
I doubt Al Jama-ah’s use of Jewish desalination plants (that never happened) will be sufficient political weapon to gain a seat.
Yay, no Ubuntu Party.
This isn’t the real battle. I expect that to be the Local Elections in 2 years time. It’s critical for the smaller parties to gain a seat so that they can can gain credit before then.
For the provincial vote, I’m keeping it simple by looking at seat allocation rather than percentages. If just one or two of the political midgets fail, the DA will have it’s majority.
WESTERN CAPE ELECTION PREDICTION (42 SEATS)
SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTION PREDICTION
The pollsters are swinging like monkeys. I left my old prediction the same.
What’s your prediction or disagreement?
Or aren’t you voting because…